Oil prices remained under pressure on Monday, holding close to $70 per barrel, as markets reacted to a notable rise in Saudi Arabian exports and renewed global trade tensions. Brent crude hovered near $70.12, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were last seen around $66.84 per barrel. The commodity is showing resilience for now, but analysts warn that upcoming policy decisions and geopolitical developments could introduce further volatility.
According to the latest data, Saudi Arabia ramped up crude shipments in June, reversing some of the voluntary production cuts implemented earlier under the broader OPEC+ output strategy. Export volumes reportedly rose by over 480,000 barrels per day compared to May, raising questions over supply discipline among major producers. This increase comes even as OPEC+ prepares for key discussions next week that could shape production policy for the rest of the year.
At the same time, growing trade tensions are keeping global markets on edge. The U.S. administration has issued new tariff warnings targeting key trade partners, including China and the European Union. Concerns that retaliatory measures could dampen industrial demand have cast a shadow over the broader commodity complex, including oil, copper, and aluminum.
Despite these bearish signals, some support for oil prices is stemming from signs of steady demand in India and China. Refineries in both countries continue to operate near full capacity, driven by summer fuel consumption and restocking efforts. In the United States, weekly inventory data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stocks, suggesting that domestic demand remains robust heading into the third quarter.
However, with the dollar strengthening again and risk sentiment fragile across equity and currency markets, oil price today reflects a complex interplay of opposing forces. Investors are now closely watching macroeconomic signals, including inflation trends and interest rate guidance from major central banks, which could influence commodity-linked investment flows.
In the short term, the price outlook hinges on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and whether member nations can present a unified stance on output levels. Any signs of internal divergence or lack of enforcement on quotas may further test price stability, especially in the face of slowing global growth expectations.
For now, the market remains range-bound, but energy analysts believe the downside risks are growing, particularly if trade disruptions widen or oil stockpiles begin to climb again in key consuming nations. In a climate of uncertainty, oil is once again behaving like a geopolitical barometer reactive to headlines and vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment.
Also Read: U.S. Tariff Pressure Nears Century-High Levels Amid Rising Global Trade Tensions
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